The Fourth American Republic

America is going through a period of political dysfunction and decline. It isn’t the first time.

Every political system decays over the decades, as the world changes and the problems the system was designed to solve are replaced by new problems outside of its scope, and as the people who built and understand the system die and are replaced.

So far there have been three different political systems under the US Constitution. First was the original system implemented by the Founding Fathers, with a relatively isolated agrarian economy; strong states; an untamed and effectively infinite frontier; and a minimal federal government funded almost entirely by tariffs. This system functioned very well at first, but gradually broke down, culminating in the American Civil War.

From Lincoln’s war reforms and the following Reconstruction period was built the second system, with a stronger central government and substantial civil service; revenue largely from internal excise taxes; the consolidated two-party system of Democrats and Republicans; extremely rapid industrial growth steered by nationwide corporate trusts; the taming of the frontier; patronage distributed by local urban “political machines”; and deep ties to the international economic and political system. This system functioned very well at first, but gradually broke down, culminating in the Great Depression.

From Roosevelt’s reforms during the New Deal and the war was built the third system, with a vast federal managerial apparatus in new bureaucracies like the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Labor Relations Board, and the greatly expanded federal executive departments; patronage distributed on the national level via new programs like Social Security; taxation almost entirely through income and payroll taxes; an industrial economy where large national and international corporations operate within the bounds set by federal regulators and bankers; imperial commitments across the globe; and the rest of the political assumptions we’ve all taken for granted for as long as anyone living remembers. This system functioned very well at first, but gradually broke down. By now the decline has become obvious to everyone.

There might be another revival and a fourth political system. As a system decays, a window opens up for about a generation, where the established system is dysfunctional enough that it cannot reliably coopt or destroy competitors, but it still remains functional enough that political reform from within can solve the core problems and keep the fundamental social structures working with what are, in the grand scheme of history, relatively minor and incremental changes. In America this has happened twice before. The window of possibility is opening again.

Revival isn’t automatic. Most great countries eventually fall because they simply decay, and decay, and decay, until they just kind of fall apart under their own weight, like the Soviet Union or the British Empire, or an external invader finally pushes over the hollow remains with surprisingly little resistance, like Rome or the Austrian Empire. America is generations away from such a fate. But if there is no great political reform, that’s where the road leads.

Which road will we go down? It’s not a matter of historical law. It depends on the skill, will, and virtue of specific individuals. Will there be a team of people with the ability and energy to build power, the knowledge to design a functional new system from the parts available, and the capability to put it in place? It depends on how well all of us do our jobs.