There Is No Steady State

Every group of people—every civilization, every nation, every corporation, every community theater troupe—is either growing stronger and more functional and better at its job, or else decaying and becoming weaker and more confused. Time marches on. Stagnant organizations are not static organizations. Like stagnant water, they become foul.

It’s important to remember, when thinking about how the future will go, that nothing stays the same. Twenty years from now, the United States Congress will either run better than it runs today, or worse. The same goes for learning about the past. When you read about what Congress was up to twenty years ago, you’re reading about a different institution that functioned differently than the Congress of today.

The most basic reason for this is that man is mortal. People die and others start doing their jobs—maybe better, maybe worse, but not exactly the same. Young people grow up and have new ideas and start doing new things, which are either better or worse than what the last batch of young people did. Every organization is being constantly refounded. In sixty years it will experience ~100% turnover and become a completely different organization.

Institutions are usually built in short, sharp bursts. Growth is difficult and chaotic and people are arguing all the time. You look back two years later and things are totally different.

Decay is usually slow and steady. People are working hard and fixing problems, and each fix is 90% as good as the way things were before, and if you’re not paying close attention you won’t know that it’s any different. You look back two years later and things look pretty much the same. Then after 10 different 90%-as-good fixes you’re down to a third of your original quality.

If you find yourself looking around and asking “Are we growing, or decaying?” then you’re almost certainly decaying.